Q coo ca-choo

Humans suck. Not at everything, but at some things that really matter. Like analyzing risk. We spend billions, maybe trillions of dollars if you count the forever wars in which we are currently engaged, trying to prevent "terrorism" which, relatively speaking, is not a very big risk for most of us. Okay, if you live in Iraq you may have something to worry about.

Globally, diarrhea is far more likely to kill you. Or just being a child under 5 years old. In America,  driving a car or eating too many french fries will probably get you. But nobody advocates going to war against automobile companies, or fast food chains, even though they kill vastly more people than terrorists.

Global Death Toll

Graph courtesy of Oxfam

Why do we suck so badly at making rational decisions based on actual data? Well, "Fixed Mindsets" for one. We just plain use the wrong methods for calculating risks. We rely on habitual logical processes, even if they are inappropriate for solving the existing problem at hand.

The reason I've been thinking about this tendency to make poor decisions based on faulty assumptions informed by the full array of cognitive bias is because recently a friend started rambling about something called QAnon. Now this guy has a bit of a tendency to believe moderately nonsensical stuff like that chiropractors are medical doctors, that fluoride causes men to grow breasts and that vaccination causes autism, all of which are, pardon my French, complete bullshit. So I wasn't entirely surprised to hear that he's being drawn into some new Trump-based, right-wing conspiracy theory. But what he started to describe far exceeded anything I could have imagined. I mean this is some seriously wacko stuff.

In order to comprehend it, you apparently have to spend all of your waking hours on the internet. Ain't nobody got time for that, as they say. Here's a handy chart that explains it:

Rube Goldberg to the Information Desk. Calling Rube Goldberg...

If, like me, you don't care enough to do your own research, Jim Jefferies has interviewed a few prominent Qanon "researchers". See it and weep.

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/bpzs3w/taking-a-deep-dive-into-qanon-s-claims

Fun to laugh at whack jobs, but it is sobering to think, as the piece indicates, that one of them currently occupies the white house. ZOG help us all.

Weights and Measures

Rolling out the door, my awesome low trail, 650b steel bike weighs 32.6 pounds, according to my bathroom scale. That's with two full water bottles, spare tubes, tools, snacks and a rain jacket, should I need one. That is, ready to ride. That's almost 17 pounds heavier than my midlife crisis carbon fibre superbike. Okay, not true, because the 15 pound 9 ounce Project One didn't include pedals, bottle cages and bottles or a saddle that a human being could actually be comfortable on. Every Bontrager saddle I ever tested was an ass hatchet. Anyway, for the purposes of discussion, I'm content to give the racing bike extra weight weenie credit. So, let's just say 17 pound difference between the two bikes. In bicycle terms where even casual cyclists are willing to pay thousands of dollars to shave a few grams, that is absolutely huuuuuggge...

Autumn in Rock Creek

Today you can buy a really nice Asian-made carbon fiber racing bike that weighs around 20 pounds for well under $2,000 (US). I verified this today - Performance Bike is offering a Fuji 2019 SL 2.5 Competition Road Bike for $1,699. It's a 650 gram frame with a Shimano 105 groupset. If you spend $5,000 more, you can get that weight down to around fifteen pounds. You know, DuraAce, much lighter wheelset, etc.   

One of the lightest racing bikes available, the latest Specialized Tarmac costs $11,000 and weighs around 13.78lbs (6.25kg). That's without pedals, bottle cages, computer or tool bag. My bike, without all those things, weighs about 26 pounds or about 12 lbs more. It's "ready to ride" weight is higher because I choose to make it more practical with a handlebar bag to carry useful stuff so I don't have to stuff my pockets or do without.

My bike cost $1,350 plus an undetermined amount of labor, but I'll be generous and say my "inept" mechanic's rate, plus the $150 to ship the bike from Calgary brought the total cost to $2,000. So the $9,000 price difference, divided by the 12 pound weight difference runs about $750 per pound. I can only presume it's worth it, because Rock Creek Park is filled with high-end bikes like the Tarmac.

On July 4 of this year, I stepped on that same scale and the number that came up was 198+. For argument sake, let's call it 200 standard American pounds. So, as I rode my bike that day, the total package weighed in around 232 pounds. Heavyweight horsepower, indeed! Since that time I have lost a bit of body weight. The number on that scale this morning was 168.8 pounds. So on today's ride, the total package of man and machine comes to 201.4 pounds. Which is to say, I've lost just about the entire bike's weight from my body in the past four months or so. AND it is to say that walking out the door, the total package weighs over 13 pounds less than if I was riding the aforementioned carbon fiber wonder machine at my previous weight. ALL of which is to say, no matter how much you pay for a bike, you'll never shave 30 pounds.

There are a lot of reasons to buy an expensive, featherweight bike. You could want the latest in wind tunnel technology and carbon layup because Bicycling magazine told you you need it. You may watch a lot of bike racing on TV, pepper your speech with words like "roleur" and just want that "pro" aesthetic for yourself. You may have buddies with similar bikes, forcing you to keep up with the Joneses. You might have just turned 40 or 50 and find yourself, as I once did, in the throws of an irrational desire to feel young and fast and energetic. You may just be a dentist and have too much money. All good reasons. But unless you are already at your ideal weight, if you are spending over $5,000 for a bike because it's lighter, save your money. Get a cheaper bike and lay off the doughnuts, you fat bastard!